So, we are in the midst of a global coronavirus pandemic. The global coronavirus pandemic? It seems likely that this will be historically as significant, if not more significant, than the financial crisis of 2008-2009. There will be a proliferation of books and documentaries that reflect back on what went wrong, what went right, and what needs to be learned from this sort of thing. Here are some of my reflections, in a classic stream-of-consciousness style.
- Portland is currently under a "stay at home" order. Maggie's school was closed all last week (though she hasn't been in school for 8 days because of sickness). And we know schools are closed at least through April 28th, and it sure seems like it will be further than this.
- My parents have been here since Tuesday evening, and fly home Sunday morning. Short trip, but makes sense given the circumstances.
- The stock market has lost 1/3 of its value in the past 3 weeks. This has been a more precipitous drop than in 2008-2009, and a larger drop in absolute terms from the peak and trough of that crisis. The Dow is down 10,400 points from peak to current, whereas it was down 7,500 points in 2008-2009.
- We are fine. We are healthy, we are going to be okay financially, and we are staying calm. We have a long investment horizon ahead of us, and have established a relatively low-cost existence that will serve us well.
- The kids have only the faintest idea of the significance of what is happening. Maggie understands that there is a "sickness" that many people are getting, but clarifies that this is different from the coughing sickness that she has had. They understand that we can't go out and play on the playground, which has been a tough lesson to learn, but we are finding alternatives that are close in proximity. Maggie and I played in the concrete structure by the playground for about an hour the other day, and she was perfectly content to make a cake and dinner entree out of leaves, dirt and sticks. We also made a model of the solar system with rocks and dirt drawings, complete with about 20 of Jupiter's 80 moons, and Titan as a large moon orbiting Saturn. We have had lots of outdoor play time at the house also, where the kids have been able to run around in their underwear since it has been sunny and warm.
- I've turned much of my focus inward and have been thinking more about what is and is not within my control. The stock market is firmly out of my control. I periodically check the performance of the Dow and am trying to understand the volatility from an informed-citizen perspective, but disconnecting this from my/our investments. I haven't checked my Vanguard account in a month, but obviously expect it to be down about 1/3.
- I've been doing pushups and pull-ups nearly every day, and have been running 3 times in the last week and half, including a great loop down across the steel bridge and back across the broadway bridge 2 nights ago on a clear and warm evening.
- I've been intentionally avoiding the news and haven't been listening to NPR with nearly the same frequency. I've been eating better (lots of carrots/peppers) and haven't been drinking any beer or alcohol. My last beer was at the Blazer's game that I went to with Julian on 3/10, where I had a Rainier and an Olympia.
- I'm more on top of email and to do list now than I've been in a long time, and have also been on a good reading streak, just finishing up Nickel Boys and Killers of the Flower Moon. Both depressing by the way.
- Financially, it is rough to think that we are probably down over $1 million in net worth. This is obviously a sign of huge privilege, but it does shake my confidence a bit in our strategy to have me stop working. That said, my not working is what is allowing us to get through this (so far) calmly and productively. I recognize that it is possible that I'll need to go back to work at some point, but I'd be waiting until this pandemic is fully behind us, and would likely need to wait for the economy to start coming back around.
- Trump's handling of this crisis has been ridiculous, and not presidential. Enough said. This should be enough to get him out of office.
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